Alabaster, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

408
FXUS64 KBMX 120602
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
102 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level ridge in
place across the southeast and an upper trough digging south
towards the Texas coast. At the surface, moisture is on the rise
with PWATs now in the 1.8-2" range according to the latest TPW
imagery. The KBMX 00z sounding reported a PWAT of 1.46". Ridging
aloft will gradually weaken and shift east through the day as the
trough to our west lifts to the northeast. Several H5 shortwaves
eject out ahead of the trough but will likely remain too far north
of us to provide much of an impact. With that said, guidance
suggests a few streams of H85-H7 energy will pass through the
region which will help enhance any diurnally driven convection
over the next couple of days. With little shear, would expect any
storms to be relatively short-lived. Brief periods of heavy
rainfall are likely with any passing shower or storm as forecast
soundings show a fairly saturated profile as this tropical
moisture moves in. Greatest chances for stronger storms looks to
be Friday afternoon as a pocket of enhanced H5 vorticity moves
towards the TN Valley. Latest CAMS are starting to hint at a line
of storms moving across MS during the day on Friday. At this
point, not too confident on how far east this activity stays
together as the best upper support will be north and west of us.
We will need to closely monitor the trends.

Otherwise, it will be warm and muggy over the next several days.
High today and tomorrow settle into the mid to upper 80s with
heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

95/Castillo

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025

The unusual upper-level low will slowly rotate from the Southern
Plains towards the Ohio Valley from Thursday through Sunday. This
will promote an active weather period with daily opportunities for
showers and storms in what will likely become a period of chaotic
convection in part from the sea breeze and other mesoscale boundary
interactions. Maintained elevated PoPs through the extended period.
When it`s not raining it will be quite humid and warm.

86/Martin

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2025

The surge of tropical moisture northward within southwesterly
flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface will commence
overnight Thursday through Friday morning. This will be in
response to Central Alabama being wedged in between the
approaching mid-level closed low to our west and 592 decameter
ridge just off the Florida Atlantic coast. Before the closed low
begins to weaken and become a mid-level trough to our northwest, I
wouldn`t be surprised if we saw a chance for a few strong storms
to develop by Friday afternoon as 500mb temperatures are slightly
cooler and 20 to 25 knots of shear may support a few robust
updrafts. With DCAPE values measuring in between 500 and 1000 J/kg
on GFS forecast soundings, a few downburst-type storms may end up
developing during the peak heating hours on Friday. Something to
keep an eye on as we start to gather CAM forecast data over the
next couple of days, and begin to apply summer convection
analysis techniques.

The very warm, unsettled, and tropical weather pattern will fully
set in over the weekend as southwesterly flow will dominate over
most of the atmospheric profile. As the 500mb trough axis moves
across the Deep South, plenty of synoptic lift and divergence
aloft will contribute to diurnally-driven widespread shower and
storm development, aided by mesoscale boundary interactions. Warm
air and moisture advection should keep most strong storm
development limited as lapse rates aloft are currently advertised
to be moist adiabatic. However, as PWATs rise well above 2 inches
storms will be very efficient rainfall producers. To say the
least, we won`t be in danger of entering into a drought anytime
soon. Looking at PoPs, they`re coming in around 80 percent for
both Saturday and Sunday afternoon. That doesn`t necessarily mean
that the entire forecast area will be rained out for hours during
those times, but there`s a high chance of at least one passing
shower or storm that could put a damper on any outdoor plans.

The active, tropical-like pattern will continue through early next
week with high rain chances each afternoon through Tuesday. Global
guidance is providing some early indications of a slightly drier
but hotter pattern setting up by Wednesday and Thursday of next
week with a strong 500mb ridge (594+ decameters) developing just
to our south. Could we finally see our first streak of widespread
90+ degree temperature days as we approach the middle of the
month? If so, we would also need to start paying attention to heat
indices rising between 100 and 105 degrees with very moist surface
conditions in the 7 to 10 day outlook.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals.
Similar to the last few night, MVFR ceilings/vis is expected from
generally 09-14Z. Confidence is not as high in dense fog
developing this morning. Another round of afternoon convection is
likely near MGM. Continued with the PROB30 group to account for
this activity. Winds generally remain less than 10 knots through
this TAF cycle.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The warm and fairly moist airmass will remain in place through
the next several days. This afternoon will be the driest with min
RH ranging from 40 to 50% in the northern half of the area,
higher in the south. 20 ft winds will remain light and variable
this afternoon, generally less than 5 mph, shifting to the south
tomorrow. Moisture levels and rain chances are forecast to
increase dramatically tomorrow through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  68  88  70 /  60  40  70  40
Anniston    86  70  86  71 /  60  40  70  40
Birmingham  87  71  88  72 /  50  40  70  30
Tuscaloosa  88  71  88  72 /  50  40  80  30
Calera      87  71  86  72 /  50  40  70  30
Auburn      86  70  85  71 /  70  40  70  30
Montgomery  88  71  88  72 /  60  30  80  20
Troy        88  69  88  71 /  70  40  80  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95/Castillo
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...95/Castillo